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PYRATROOPER
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Posted on 02-11-11 03:45:41 AM (last edited by PYRATROOPER at 02-11-11 12:47 AM) Link | Quote
Originally posted by Imajin
Originally posted by Imajin
Apparently it's supposed to snow here overnight... but it was supposed to have started by now too, and it hasn't yet.

This turned out to be absolutely nothing.


It is called Chaos Theory.
It says you can not predict anything more than few seconds into the future.
Also the the Butterfly Effect part of it to which means you could have the same humidity and/or temperature and/or other weather conditions and instead of sunshine one day the next time you get the same conditions it could be rain.

"Anything can and will happen" Jeff Goldblum's character Ian Malcolm in the movie Jurassic Park.

So basically what I saying all this money we spend on predicting the weather every year is a waste because we will never be able to predict it.

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Lyskar
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Posted on 02-11-11 04:15:04 AM Link | Quote
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Metal_Man88's Post
That is a rather large jump to conclusion. If your theory of chaos theory was true everywhere, then you could not predict where you would step next when walking, ergo, by your logic, you would always step in the wrong spot, ergo you can never walk without the floor turning out to be the wall and then fall on your face, probably dying not long after because if you predict you are alive a few seconds later you will be dead because due to chaos theory all predictions are wrong.

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Active 8.2 years ago
Posted on 02-11-11 04:37:18 AM Link | Quote
That's why it's called a weather FORECAST. "Rain, 60% chance" does not mean it's definitely going to rain.

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Posted on 02-11-11 05:24:48 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Metal_Man88
That is a rather large jump to conclusion. If your theory of chaos theory was true everywhere, then you could not predict where you would step next when walking, ergo, by your logic, you would always step in the wrong spot, ergo you can never walk without the floor turning out to be the wall and then fall on your face, probably dying not long after because if you predict you are alive a few seconds later you will be dead because due to chaos theory all predictions are wrong.



No that is not what I meant because I did not give you the whole story.


Below is basic explanation of Chaos Theory:

Let's go back to the beginning. Physics has had great success at describing certain kinds of behavior: planets in
orbit, spacecraft going to the moon, pen-dulums and springs and rolling balls, that sort of
thing. The regular move-ment of objects. These are described by what are called linear
equations, and mathematicians can solve those equations easily. We've been doing it for
hundreds of years.
But there is another kind of behavior, which physics handles badly. For example,
anything to do with turbulence. Water coming out of a spout. Air moving over an
airplane wing. Weather. Blood flowing through the heart. Turbulent events are described
by nonlinear equations. They're bard to solve — in fact, they're usually impossible to
solve. So physics has never understood this whole class of events. Until about ten years
ago. The new theory that describes them is called chaos theory.
Chaos theory originally grew out of attempts to make computer models of weather in
the 1960s. Weather is a big complicated system, namely the earth's atmosphere as it
interacts with the land and the sun. The behavior of this big complicated system always
defied understanding. So naturally we couldn't predict weather. But what the early
researchers learned from computer models was that, even if you could understand it, you
still couldn't predict it. Weather prediction is absolutely impossible. The rea-son is that
the behavior of the system is sensitively dependent on initial conditions.
The shorthand is the 'butterfly effect.' A butterfly flaps its wings in Peking, and
weather in New York is different.
But if I have a weather system that I start up with a certain temperature and a certain
wind speed and a certain humidity — and if I then repeat it with almost the same
temperature, wind, and humidity — the second system will not behave almost the same.
It'll wander off and rapidly will become very different from the first. Thunderstorms
instead of sunshine. That's nonlinear dynamics. They are sensitive to initial conditions:
tiny differences become amplified.
You actually find bidden regularities within the complex variety
of a system's behavior. That's why chaos has now become a very broad theory that's used
to study everything from the stock market, to rioting crowds, to brain waves during
epilepsy. Any sort of complex system where there is confusion and unpredictability. We
can find an underlying order.
It's essentially characterized by the movement of the system within phase space,"
Chaos theory says two things. First, that complex systems like weather have an underlying order. Second, the reverse of that —
that simple systems can produce complex behavior. For example, pool balls. You hit a
pool ball, and it starts to carom off the sides of the table. In theory, that's a fairly simple
system, almost a Newtonian system. Since you can know the force imparted to the ball,
and the mass of the ball, and you can calculate the angles at which it will strike the walls,
you can predict the future behavior of the ball. In theory, you could predict the behavior
of the ball far into the future, as it keeps bouncing from side to side. You could predict
where it will end up three hours from now, in theory.
But in fact, it turns out you can't predict more than a few seconds into
the future. Because almost immediately very small effects — imperfections in the surface
of the ball, tiny indentations in the wood of the table — start to make a difference. And it
doesn't take long before they overpower your careful calculations. So it turns out that this
simple system of a pool ball on a table has unpredictable behavior.


Quoted from Jurassic Park by the late Micheal Crichton

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Lyskar
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Posted on 02-11-11 07:14:23 AM Link | Quote
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Metal_Man88's Post
Then there is what my Geography teacher said, someone who actually happens to have studied meteorology, and therefore is actually qualified to say something about the weather.

(Michael Crichton, while educated, had knowledge in medical and literary and anthropological fields, as well as some particularly strange beliefs revolving psychic things, therefore while chaos theory is not explicitly right, it is also not an absolute law.)

There will always be funnel effects, caused by the wind or the water becoming concentrated by the landscape. Combine this with knowledge of the jet stream and then further with calculus to determine the portions of the steepest changes in pressure/largest differences, and thus the greatest imbalances, you can find basic patterns which will present themselves time after time.

Chaos Theory speaks of changes caused by minutiae, but in the macro level, these changes are crushed by the larger trends. Imperfections related to butterflies, baseballs and kangaroos do not mean that if you stand in a canyon during a windstorm, you won't get blown over/hit by rocks. Nor will it mean that established laws of physics and science will just cease to exist.

Therefore, when a proper meteorologist predicts the weather, they have this thing called a percentage of error. You know those hurricanes they keep talking about? Guess what, many of them have been accurately predicted. Where is the chaos theory stopping them there?

The butterfly was too small, the random old man's cough too weak, the weird imperfections of a golf ball not enough to stop that massive pressure trench fueled by the warmth of the ocean and massive mountain-sized imperfections in the land.

Chaos Theory is a useful tool, but you are trying to apply it to things where it has limited meaning. Yes, there is a level of unpredictability to weather. No, it is not infeasible to predict it. No, it is not governed by chaos theory to the extent that all predicting of it is a waste of time.

See, just because a book said it, doesn't mean it's true. Sometimes you have to cross check it, or alternatively, make sure it's in the right context. In the realm of billiard balls and minute differences in weather patterns, chaos theory wins; but in the overall game, chaos theory loses. It's a way to explain why things go wrong, but not that they always will.

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krutomisi
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Posted on 02-11-11 02:05:12 PM (last edited by krutomisi at 02-11-11 11:05 AM) Link | Quote
but Metal_Man88,
Jurassic Park has dinosaurs so it must be true


there was a tiny bit of snow here yesterday but that's about it

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Posted on 02-11-11 04:10:54 PM (last edited by PYRATROOPER at 02-11-11 01:26 PM) Link | Quote
Originally posted by Metal_Man88
Then there is what my Geography teacher said, someone who actually happens to have studied meteorology, and therefore is actually qualified to say something about the weather.

(Michael Crichton, while educated, had knowledge in medical and literary and anthropological fields, as well as some particularly strange beliefs revolving psychic things, therefore while chaos theory is not explicitly right, it is also not an absolute law.)

There will always be funnel effects, caused by the wind or the water becoming concentrated by the landscape. Combine this with knowledge of the jet stream and then further with calculus to determine the portions of the steepest changes in pressure/largest differences, and thus the greatest imbalances, you can find basic patterns which will present themselves time after time.

Chaos Theory speaks of changes caused by minutiae, but in the macro level, these changes are crushed by the larger trends. Imperfections related to butterflies, baseballs and kangaroos do not mean that if you stand in a canyon during a windstorm, you won't get blown over/hit by rocks. Nor will it mean that established laws of physics and science will just cease to exist.

Therefore, when a proper meteorologist predicts the weather, they have this thing called a percentage of error. You know those hurricanes they keep talking about? Guess what, many of them have been accurately predicted. Where is the chaos theory stopping them there?

The butterfly was too small, the random old man's cough too weak, the weird imperfections of a golf ball not enough to stop that massive pressure trench fueled by the warmth of the ocean and massive mountain-sized imperfections in the land.

Chaos Theory is a useful tool, but you are trying to apply it to things where it has limited meaning. Yes, there is a level of unpredictability to weather. No, it is not infeasible to predict it. No, it is not governed by chaos theory to the extent that all predicting of it is a waste of time.

See, just because a book said it, doesn't mean it's true. Sometimes you have to cross check it, or alternatively, make sure it's in the right context. In the realm of billiard balls and minute differences in weather patterns, chaos theory wins; but in the overall game, chaos theory loses. It's a way to explain why things go wrong, but not that they always will.



I am surprised you did not know it WAS discovered by a meteorologist named Edward Lorenz in the early 1960s.

So if you read in these below you find stuff about chaos theory and how weather played a crucial role in its discovery.
Chaos Theory: A Brief Introduction
chaos theory

I was just saying that although I watch the weather. I do not believe in its long term accuracy because it can not be predicted more than 3 days to a week if were lucky into the future and that anyone who expects anyone to ever figure out weather any farther than 3 days to a week is pointless.
Because in the 1960s when meteorologist first began using computers to predict the they discovered although even if you could understand weather you could not predict it over long term (few day to weeks).

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Posted on 02-11-11 04:48:42 PM Link | Quote
you know there's a difference between

predictions and getting it right and randomly guessing and educated guessing

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Posted on 02-11-11 05:29:12 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by krutomisi
you know there's a difference between

predictions and getting it right and randomly guessing and educated guessing



I know, I know I was just giving some information I thought was interesting.

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Posted on 02-11-11 05:37:33 PM (last edited by Gabu at 02-11-11 02:37 PM) Link | Quote
Interesting =/= true under most circumstances

Like this one!

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Posted on 02-11-11 06:06:53 PM Link | Quote

Originally posted by Gabu
Interesting =/= true under most circumstances

Like this one!

Interesting.

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Posted on 02-11-11 06:21:49 PM Link | Quote
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Metal_Man88's Post
Originally posted by Imajin
Originally posted by Gabu
Interesting =/= true under most circumstances

Like this one!

Interesting.


*Metal_Man88 's mind explodes

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Posted on 02-11-11 11:38:54 PM Link | Quote
Just as planned.

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Posted on 02-12-11 12:00:36 AM Link | Quote
Last week, I had three snow days in a row.

So yeah. Pretty crazy.

Also try and get used to me disappearing and reappearing from time to time; I tend to do that.

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Posted on 02-14-11 03:37:20 PM Link | Quote
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Posted on 02-14-11 10:39:11 PM Link | Quote
Snow *AND* rain today! The perfect mix!

...Of course, with the temperature going all the way to -19C tonight, I fully expect much messiness on the roads tomorrow.

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Posted on 02-14-11 11:43:12 PM Link | Quote
It was raining cats and dogs outside today.

Really.

A kitty fell on my head a few hours ago. I adopted it

(No, I'm just kidding, but it was raining really hard.)

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Posted on 02-14-11 11:58:17 PM Link | Quote


Originally posted by Terra
It was raining cats and dogs outside today.

Really.

A kitty fell on my head a few hours ago. I adopted it

(No, I'm just kidding, but it was raining really hard.)


Imagine if it really could rain cats and dogs...

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Posted on 02-15-11 12:53:55 AM Link | Quote
Instead of cold this week highs in the 40s.

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Posted on 02-16-11 12:00:12 AM Link | Quote
The last few days it's been ICE AGE: THE MELTDOWN here.

All that snow is just melting away from the upper 40's here today. And on Friday, I think, it's supposed to get up to 60.

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Jul - General Chat - Anyone else getting hit by this snowstorm? New poll - New thread - New reply


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