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12-12-18 04:05:51 PM

Jul - News - What the fuck, Australia? New poll - New thread - New reply
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Halian

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Posted on 08-27-18 01:09:15 AM (last edited by Halian at 08-27-18 01:11:03 AM) Link | Quote
Meanwhile, things are looking up for the left-wing Australian Labor Party.

Newspoll's latest poll, taken August 24-25, shows Labor ahead of the Coalition 41-33 (Greens 10, One Nation 7, others 9) straight up, and 56-44 two-party preferred (which is after preference flows have been taken into account; Australia uses instant-runoff voting.)

This translates into a 5.5% swing to Labor, according to The Australian*, and hence a 21-seat gain for Labor, 90-55-5.

* (The Australian is owned by News Corp, which is run by Rupert Murdoch and his family, and as such leans conservative; their main competitor in Australian news is Fairfax Media, whose stable includes the center-left Sydney Morning Herald. I don't usually read conservative-leaning newspapers, but wanted to seek out one's coverage of the latest poll to see how they would spin the result; however, it looks like the numbers I just quoted were released by Newspoll, the company that organized the poll in question, not The Australian.)
Flygon
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Posted on 08-27-18 02:22:46 AM Link | Quote
To be clear - That's an astoundingly strong swing towards Labor. We've been having some incredibly strong swings lately on a state level.

I wonder what Australia's political future will be. The Liberal Party refuses to formalize a faction system. They have the capability to further split themselves into multiple parties whilst maintaining a Coalition, but there's a few good reasons that none of the factions would want to do that.

The Liberal Party is is going to be very unstable into the future.
But the Murdoch media are going to stick right by them regardless.

Labor's internal policies makes future spills whilst they're in power almost impossible, to boot. After their own past, uh, experiences.
I can see Labor being the stable party into the future.
Tarale
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Posted on 08-27-18 02:42:49 AM Link | Quote
I wish to giggle at the idea that Labor is "left wing".
Halian

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Posted on 08-27-18 02:44:11 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Tarale
I wish to giggle at the idea that Labor is "left wing".


Only relatively so, same as the Democrats here. :/
Halian

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Posted on 08-27-18 02:44:55 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Flygon
To be clear - That's an astoundingly strong swing towards Labor. We've been having some incredibly strong swings lately on a state level.

I wonder what Australia's political future will be. The Liberal Party refuses to formalize a faction system. They have the capability to further split themselves into multiple parties whilst maintaining a Coalition, but there's a few good reasons that none of the factions would want to do that.

The Liberal Party is is going to be very unstable into the future.
But the Murdoch media are going to stick right by them regardless.

Labor's internal policies makes future spills whilst they're in power almost impossible, to boot. After their own past, uh, experiences.
I can see Labor being the stable party into the future.


Honestly, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Coalition broke up and the factions formalized into the Liberal and National Parties (and perchance others if necessary).
Flygon
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Posted on 08-27-18 03:03:24 AM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Halian
Honestly, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Coalition broke up and the factions formalized into the Liberal and National Parties (and perchance others if necessary).

More to the point, it's entirely plausible the Liberal party would split up into a Conservative, and... well, Liberal parties. But given the way the Conservative faction play, I'm not sure they'd be very keen on losing the Liberal branding... and obviously the more Liberal portion of the party doesn't want to lose that branding either.

But, who knows. There's already been some people splitting off from the Liberals to form their own party - ie. Cory Bernardi.
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Jul - News - What the fuck, Australia? New poll - New thread - New reply




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