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Jul - Craziness Domain - Gambler's fallacy New poll - New thread - New reply
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Heads or tails?
A coin which you know is fair has been flipped and got 4 heads in a row. Does your gut instinct tell you that heads or tails should be next?
Heads
 
 3.6%, 1 vote
Tails
 
 14.3%, 4 votes
On the edge
 
 7.1%, 2 votes
I know too much about probability theory to answer this question
 
 75.0%, 21 votes
Multi-voting is disabled. 28 users have voted.

Taryn

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Posted on 10-19-09 10:54:50 PM Link | Quote


I'm curious as to the Jul opinion of the gambler's fallacy.

Basically, if a coin is definitely fair, on a given flip it is just as likely to land heads as tails according to probability theory. However, many people think (or, more accurately, feel deep down) that it ought to land one way or another after a streak.

Let's say that a coin that you know is fair was flipped many times in succession. The last 4 flips were all heads. If you were to bet on the outcome of the next flip, would you go with heads or tails?

I'd go with tails, myself. For some reason, my brain tends to expect things to average out Of course, I know the probably is still 50%.

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:02:30 PM Link | Quote
" I know too much about probability theory to answer this question"

Unfortunately, that counts as a vote which would be similar to answering the question. So I have to stalemate.

Also, my luck makes it so that 80% of the time it will go the way opposite my bet, unless it's one of those few days in a year where I have unnaturally excellent guessing ability that works for many times in a row until I finally mess it up once in which case I stop right there. (Bloody long sentence failure)

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:11:40 PM Link | Quote
Well, let's go for a kill time.

It deppends on the motion the one throwing the coin makes, its strength, the momentum, the air resistance, the weigth, of course where was the coin launched from, the distance it goes through, the wind, the original position of the coin, and many other factors.

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Ninji

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:14:00 PM Link | Quote
I seriously have no idea. Knowing me, I think I'd expect it to go tails. (And then it'd end up being heads and screwing me up. But of course, if I chose heads, it'd be tails.)

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:14:42 PM (last edited by Kyargu at 10-19-09 08:22 PM) Link | Quote
I wouldn't expect it to be anything, because I know it'd turn out to be the opposite of what I expect anyway

JUST LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE IN MY LIFE ;__________;

e: oh snap 600

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:52:22 PM Link | Quote
I know too much about probability theory to answer this question

and by that i mean i know what the gambler's fallacy is

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Ninji

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Posted on 10-19-09 11:55:51 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Kyargu
I wouldn't expect it to be anything, because I know it'd turn out to be the opposite of what I expect anyway

JUST LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE IN MY LIFE ;__________;

e: oh snap 600

I should just have said this. I guess expecting tails was a bit too optimistic.

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Posted on 10-20-09 05:29:12 AM Link | Quote
My gut instinct would say tails because it's due to come up with the 50/50 chance.

But again... probability theory. :\ I'd just flip a coin and guess based on that.

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Posted on 10-20-09 05:31:49 AM Link | Quote








*Caboose pretends he knows all about the last one, and picks it.

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Posted on 10-20-09 05:35:40 AM Link | Quote
You have 100% chance to get one side of the coin. But it's not measured by past flips!

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Posted on 10-20-09 09:52:47 AM Link | Quote
You have 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/(2^5) --> (1/2^n for an indefinite streak) chances of the coin being on the same side 5 times in a row. However, as the four first flips have been made and were head (1/2^4 chances), then it doesn't matter much. As the coin doesn't have a memory (that is, unless the RNG hates you) then we can assume we are starting a new streak of either tails or heads, since we only want one flip, the probabilities are of 1/2^1 which is to say 50% either way.

In other words, I'd be likely to pick at random since it just depends on one flip anyway.
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Posted on 10-20-09 10:41:53 AM Link | Quote




Profile
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Next time, try the Monty Hall Problem!

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Posted on 10-20-09 01:33:04 PM Link | Quote
Tails.

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Posted on 10-20-09 01:40:25 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Reimu
It deppends on the motion the one throwing the coin makes, its strength, the momentum, the air resistance, the weigth, of course where was the coin launched from, the distance it goes through, the wind, the original position of the coin, and many other factors.

I was going to make a response just like this. Thanks for doing it for me!

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Posted on 10-20-09 02:12:46 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Dead Master
Originally posted by Reimu
It deppends on the motion the one throwing the coin makes, its strength, the momentum, the air resistance, the weigth, of course where was the coin launched from, the distance it goes through, the wind, the original position of the coin, and many other factors.

I was going to make a response just like this. Thanks for doing it for me!

What FP said. :/

I was just to lazy so I simply put that it will be a 100% chance. As that is the most accurate thing to say.

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Posted on 10-20-09 04:02:24 PM Link | Quote
I know it's a 50-50 chance either way, so I just like calling tails.

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Posted on 10-20-09 05:02:51 PM Link | Quote
I'd call tails, because, well, it just feels like tails is going to come up any time.

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Posted on 10-20-09 06:02:38 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by NSNick
Next time, try the Monty Hall Problem!


What is this problem you speak of?

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Originally posted by Sonicandtails
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Taryn

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Posted on 10-20-09 06:54:02 PM Link | Quote


Basically, you're given 3 doors. One of them has a prize behind it and the other 2 just have junk. First you pick a door, say door 1. It may or may not be there, but the host just tells you that it's not behind, say, door 3. Do you keep door 1 as your pick or switch to door 2? Believe it or not, there's a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door 2

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Ninji

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Posted on 10-20-09 07:11:41 PM Link | Quote
Originally posted by Dark Witch Terra
Basically, you're given 3 doors. One of them has a prize behind it and the other 2 just have junk. First you pick a door, say door 1. It may or may not be there, but the host just tells you that it's not behind, say, door 3. Do you keep door 1 as your pick or switch to door 2? Believe it or not, there's a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door 2

Really? That's pretty interesting. I wonder why there's such a high chance.

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Originally posted by Sonicandtails
I'm trying top for the day 2 minutes to see how I feel. It's certainly different.
(I'm a bottom guy)
Currently reorganising my site's public_html folder. Links/images in my posts may be broken. If you find a broken link/image, PM me with the link and I'll fix it!
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Jul - Craziness Domain - Gambler's fallacy New poll - New thread - New reply


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